Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are already in good shape to win their party’s nomination for the 2016 presidential election. Clinton is a -1000 favorite to win the bid for the Democrats, while Trump is a healthy -400 for the Republicans. However, if their momentum continues through Super Tuesday – as expected – then those odds are likely to improve even further.
Super Tuesday (March 1) is a day in which several states will hold primary elections. For the Republicans, they’ll go to battle over Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee and Vermont. The Democrats will vie for delegates in the same places, except instead of Alaska they’ll battle in Colorado.
Heading into Tuesday Clinton has the delegate lead on Bernie Sanders, and the momentum. Clinton edged Sanders in Nevada and then trounced him in South Carolina. According to the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead on Sanders in three of the biggest southern states, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. If Clinton wins big – as many expect her to do – the nomination is all but hers to claim.
As for the Republican race, Trump looks like he’s in good shape. He’s been bulletproof so far and is rolling after wins in Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire. The polls shows that Trump is ahead comfortably in Georgia and Tennessee, and while he’s down 13 points in Senator Ted Cruz’s state of Texas, all he really needs to do there is be competitive to keep his momentum going.
If Cruz fails to capture Texas, his path to the nomination becomes very difficult. As for Marco Rubio, who is currently second in line for the Republican presidential nomination at +250 odds, he’s hoping to pull off at least a win and a number of quality second-place results. If not, he becomes a fading commodity.
Remember that polls don’t always produce accurate results as Trump was expected to take Iowa but Cruz eventually ended up with the win there. It’s entirely possible that someone like John Kasich is the choice over Rubio in the more moderate states while Cruz earns Texas and a split, and the race becomes murkier than ever. But that’s unlikely – as unlikely as Sanders challenging Clinton after her engine has regained steam.
The most likely scenario after Super Tuesday is that we get a clearer picture of the race for the White House, with a focus on Clinton and Trump.